If Russia Wins
A Scenario
Grove/Atlantic · Print & ebook · January 16, 2026
A New Statesman Book of the Year A #1 international bestseller from a NATO expert, this deeply researched and chillingly plausible scenario imagines what might happen should Putin defeat Ukraine and not stop there March 2028.
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- Who it’s for
- A tense geopolitical scenario makes alliance commitments feel suddenly consequential.
- Genres
- Geopolitics, Russian & Post-Soviet Politics, Security Studies
- Published
- Grove/Atlantic, January 16, 2026
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A New Statesman Book of the Year A #1 international bestseller from a NATO expert, this deeply researched and chillingly plausible scenario imagines what might happen should Putin defeat Ukraine and not stop there March 2028. Russian troops capture the small Estonian town of Narva and the island of Hiiumaa in the Baltic Sea. After a victorious peace deal in Ukraine, Putin’s long-mooted encroachment into the Baltic states has begun. What if Ukraine was only the beginning?
Continue reading
What will the NATO alliance decide? Will they risk nuclear war? Day by day and hour by hour, renowned political scientist Carlo Masala plays out what might happen when the President of the United States is called on to uphold NATO’s commitment to mutual defense, just as China’s maneuvers in Asia provide Russia with the perfect cover. A timely, gripping, and thought-provoking scenario, If Russia Wins shows how our world order is poised on a knife-edge. In the United States, we are accustomed to everything working out in our favor, in the end. But what if it doesn’t?
Alliance at the Edge
A tense geopolitical scenario makes alliance commitments feel suddenly consequential.
Come here for
- The uneasy space between strategic analysis and what-if thinking
- A sharp focus on NATO’s mutual-defense promise
Expect
- A crisis scenario unfolding day by day and hour by hour
- Questions of escalation, nuclear risk, and global distraction
Where it sits
| Security Studies | 69% |
|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 65% |
| Russian & Post-Soviet Politics | 44% |
Percentages are BookFrontier’s reading of the book.
Publisher categories
- Diplomacy
- Security Studies
- Geopolitics
- Authors
- Carlo Masala, Olena Ebel, Ruth Ahmedzai Kemp
- Publisher
- Grove/Atlantic
- Published
- January 16, 2026
- Format
- Print & ebook
- Reading lane
- Diplomacy